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Wednesday, May 12, 2004
Tempe, Arizona Home Sales Heat Up
by Blanche Evans
Like many warm weather communities that boomed during the 1980s, Tempe, Arizona has a large stock of older homes, but even so, they are selling well compared to new housing due to the town's evergreen popularity with ASU students and retirees, say local Realtors. "Tempe is dominated by ASU," say Realtors Wally and Patricia Neal. "South of the Superstition Freeway, the ASU influence is less severe, but, even here, a large percentage of the residences are devoted to student rental housing. As such, market conditions are influenced more by factors emanating from the school (such as increases in tuition, fluctuation in enrollment, etc) and investment factors, than by normal housing issues. They suggest, "Structure age is an issue for most of Tempe. Except for very limited, but nice redevelopment in the Northwest along the river, even the newest homes here were built in the early 1980's. Construction materials, architectural styles, homes sizes, etc, are typical of this era. Short commute distances and times to/from downtown Phoenix (the major commute flow pattern throughout the entire metro area) is a positive factor for Tempe properties." Says Realtor Jeanne Bryson, "Tempe offers a quality of life unparalleled to any place in the country. Arizona's sixth largest city, with over 165,000 residents, Tempe has successfully blended the dynamics of a high-tech business center, the fun and excitement of a resort community, the warmth and comfort of a residential neighborhood and the small town atmosphere of a college community. Centrally located to downtown Phoenix, Sky Harbor Airport, the 101 freeway, 202 and US60, Tempe's strategic location makes it popular for businesses and residents. More than 750 high-tech & manufacturing firms reside in Tempe, including Motorola, AlliedSignal and Medtronic Micro-Rel employing more than 6,000 people. Tempe's educational environment includes ASU with over 50,000 students. Downtown Tempe is a cultural center in its own right, with a wide variety of restaurants, shopping, movie theatres, hotels, corporate offices and condominium developments. The Spring and Fall Festival of the Arts drew over 250,000 visitors this year. Tempe is also the sports capital of Arizona -- home to the Arizona State University Sun Devils and NFL's Arizona Cardinals as well as the setting for the Fiesta Bowl." About the market, Bryson says, "Sales continue strong in the Tempe area, with an average sales price of $183,709. Last month ( April 2004), there were 294 homes sold -- with an average market time of 53 days. Sellers are getting 108.81 percent of their listed price! Buyers have a wide variety of homes to choose from in Tempe: older homes in established neighborhoods may be more affordable, custom homes on acre+ lots and trendy loft-type condominiums are available in the Mill Avenue area, as well as starter homes in the FHA price range ($165,126.)" Agrees Realtor Pat Hill, "Tempe home sales continue to rise. In April 2004, the average home price was about $183,533 which was up from March 2004 of about $180,000! The most active area for home sales was in the area close to South Mountain with 194 homes sold. Seller were getting 98.47 percent of their asking price. With cultural advantages of the university such as theatre, educational classes, sports and a great downtown area of restaurants and shopping, Tempe is a terrific college town atmosphere." Published: May 12, 2004 Blanche Evans is the publisher of Agent News and the associate editor of Realty Times, the Internet's largest independent real estate news service. She is the author of two best-selling real estate books: The Hottest e-Careers In Real Estate, Real Estate Education Company, an Internet marketing primer for real estate professionals, and homesurfing.net: The Insider's Guide To Buying And Selling Your Home Using The Internet, Dearborn, a consumer homebuying and selling guide. In 2000, she was recognized by the editors of REALTOR(r) Magazines as one of the "25 Most Influential People In Real Estate," and in 2003 when the "Most Influential" list was updated, she was recognized as one of nine "Notables." She is also a frequent contributor to "Your Money" on CNN fn. Copyright © 2004 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
May Economic Outlook: Bye Bye Refi
The strength of the employment report on Friday, May 7, leaves little doubt about the strength of the current recovery. The GDP growth engine seems to be generating torque that is translating into job creation. Payrolls increased by 288,000 in April, accompanied by upward revisions of 66 thousand jobs in February and March. A closer look at the pattern of job creation indicates strength across all sectors of the economy. Add to this a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.6 percent, and we have a situation where employment increases more than compensated for job seekers entering or reentering the labor force. This is good news from the perspective of the strength of the recovery.
What does all this mean for Fed actions? Governor Bernanke's April 22, 2004 statement indicated that the Fed viewed the breakeven job creation rate at 120 thousand per month. With strong job numbers, averaging 235 thousand per month over the last three months, this suggests a Fed rate hike may occur sooner rather than later. Yet, strong labor productivity gains give the Fed some flexibility. Productivity surged in the first quarter of this year by rising 3.5 percent quarter-over-quarter on an annualized basis, above the 2.4 percent growth rate during the period 1993-2003. While there has been an increase in compensation, year-over-year unit labor costs are declining at a rate of 1.3 percent. It seems safe to conclude that recent increases in the CPI are not likely due to increases in labor costs. In light of all of this data the Fed believes the "goal of price stability to have moved into balance," and their current perspective is that policy accommodation can be removed at a "measured" pace. This change in stance has added to the market's expectation of rate increases in the near term. Having built in this very same set of expectations, mortgage rates have climbed from 5.8 percent to 6.1 percent in the last month. This change will reduce mortgage originations, primarily through a drop in refinancing. In spite of this increase in rates, rising family incomes and improved employment conditions will lead to housing starts coming in at a healthy 1.85 million units and home sales close to 7.3 million units for the year. Refinance share, however, will be a casualty. The last three years have seen the refi-share of originations come in at well above 50 percent. For the first time in quite a while, refi-share is expected to come in below that threshold, at about 40 percent for 2004. For now, it looks like "Bye Bye Refi." Published: May 12, 2004 Copyright © 2004 Realty Times. All Rights Reserved.
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